The growth of Thai exports may slow to only single digits in the final two months of this year given the possibility of a double-dip recession in the United States and Europe, notes a study by Kasikorn Research Center.
The centre projected that exports over the rest of this year would increase in value in US dollar terms by 13% or in a range between 6% and 17.5%.The prediction is based on the global economy slowing as the US and Europe struggle, though this worst-case scenario might not actually occur.
However, revived supply chains in Japan will aid local manufacturing.
K-Research added farm and food sectors would remain strong this year. It forecast annual export growth of 20%.
It said that exports in July, which set a record at $21.52 billion, were supported by seasonal demand, noting if the un usually high value of gold exports were excluded, the total figure would have been lower than June.
The growth of 38.3% year-on-year in July also reflected a low base last year.
The southern office of the Bank of Thailand predicted shrimp exports will rise, especially during the harvest from August and October.
The improvement would help offset the drop of 8.2% in the volume of frozen and processed shrimp exports in the first five months of this year, resulting from diseases and floods last November and April.
Thanomchit Siripakaporn, a senior economist at the office, said renewed demand from Japan and lower supplies from Vietnam and Indonesia have increased prices.
The Thai shrimp industry is still No.1 in the world with production of around 500,000 tonnes a year, or 26% of global output, and 90% exported.
